Energy Consumption¶
Purpose and Perspective¶
The purpose of the Energy Consumption sector is to represent the major drivers of national final energy consumption in long term. The sector includes consumption from production activities (including agriculture, industry, and services production); consumption from the residential sector; consumption from transportation; and the residual demand for other uses. We consider as major drivers of electricity demand production volume (for production sectors consumption), income and population size (for residential consumption); vehicles fuel consumption and electricity consumption (for transport sector consumption); and GDP and population (for other sectors consumption). The short-term effects of energy prices on consumption are not explicitly considered, while long-term effects are implicitly embedded in the estimation of the efficiency factors.
Model Structure and Major Assumptions¶
Residential electricity consumption depends on income, access to electricity, and population [1]
Energy consumption for productive uses depends on the volume of production [2]
Energy consumption for other uses depends on GDP and population [3]
Energy efficiency is estimated as function of global average energy efficiency [4]
Exogenous Input Variables¶
Global average energy intensity - Units: Kgoileq/Usd2011ppp
US average years of schooling – Units: year
Initialization Variables¶
Initial households per capita electricity consumption - Units: Bkwh/(Year*Person)
Initial final energy intensity agriculture - Units: Ktoe/Rlcu
Initial final energy intensity industry - Units: Ktoe/Rlcu
Initial final energy intensity services - Units: Ktoe/Rlcu
Initial final energy intensity other - Units: Ktoe/Year/Person
Initial per capita final energy consumption residential - Units: Ktoe/Rlcu
Initial proportion of population connected to power network (Urban/Rural) - Units: Dmnl
Modeling Details¶
Energy intensity (energy input per unit of GDP is obtained by calibrating simulated energy demand to actual data, through the indirect estimation of the responsiveness of domestic energy efficiency to changes in global average energy efficiency.
Footnotes and References¶
[1] IEA (2014). World Energy Model documentation, 2014 version. International Energy Agency and OECD.
[2] IEA (2014). World Energy Model documentation, 2014 version. International Energy Agency and OECD.
[3] IEA (2014). World Energy Model documentation, 2014 version. International Energy Agency and OECD.
[4] WDI (2015). World Development Indicators database. Washington, DC: World Bank Group.
