Vehicles

Vehicles Sector

Purpose and Perspective

The Vehicles sector tracks the number of passenger and commercial road vehicles (internal combustion engines and electric) and the emissions these vehicles produce (fine particulate matter, PM 2.5). The model explicitly accounts for the replacement of old vehicles by new and the factors affecting decisions concerning the level of fuel efficiency of new vehicles, including public expenditure (subsidies). Vehicle emissions contribute to the aggregate emissions in the Emissions and Waste sector and eventually to human health.

Model Structure and Major Assumptions

  • The purchase of vehicles is affected by income [1]

  • The purchase of vehicles is affected by road density [2]

  • Vehicles contribute to particulate emissions through fuel combustion and through tire, brake, and road dust [3]

  • Per unit emissions are greater for commercial than passenger vehicles [4]

Exogenous Input Variables

None

Initialization Variables

  • Initial vehicles – Units: Vehicle

  • Initial total vehicles average fuel efficiency – Units: Km/l

Modeling Details

Through the use of subscripts, we represent with the same structure the processes of purchase and scrapping of both private passenger cars and commercial vehicles. Should the analysis require a further break-down of vehicles into sub-classes, this can be implemented through the expansion of the vehicles subscript.

Footnotes and References

[1] Greenspan, A., & Cohen, D. (1999). Motor Vehicle Stocks, Scrappage, and Sales. Review of Economics and Statistics, 81, 3: 369-383.

[2] Litman, T. (2015). A new traffic safety agenda: Incorporating transportation demand management safety strategies. Annual International Conference on Transportation. Athens, Greece.

[3] Klimont, Z., Cofala, J., Bertok, I., Amann, M., Heyes, C., & Gyarfas, F. (2002). Modelling Particulate Emissions in Europe, A Framework to Estimate Reduction Potential and Control Costs. IIASA Interim Report, IR-02-076.

[4] Klimont, Z., Cofala, J., Bertok, I., Amann, M., Heyes, C., & Gyarfas, F. (2002). Modelling Particulate Emissions in Europe, A Framework to Estimate Reduction Potential and Control Costs. IIASA Interim Report, IR-02-076.