Land Sector

Purpose and Perspective

The purpose of the Land sector is to track land use for different purposes. The Land sector includes four classifications of land including agricultural land, settlement land, forest land and other land. Agriculture land is further divided into arable land and permanent crops, and pasture land. Other land (not shown in the diagram for simplicity) accounts for all land that is not for agriculture, settlement or forest, and also works as an intermediate stage in the transformation between land uses. While the levels of the different types of land change, the Land sector ensures that total amount of land is always conserved. The approach used is based on Food and Agriculture Organization’s international standard land classifications and includes an endogenous representation of the main factors that shift land from one category to another.

Sector Structure and Major Assumptions

  • Profitability of agriculture and livestock affect agriculture land demand [1]

  • Demographics and unemployment affect agriculture land demand [2]

  • Agriculture land demand affects deforestation [3]

  • Capital intensity negatively affects pasture land demand [4]

  • Unit costs for reforestation are estimated based on Varmoal (2002), Durst et al (2011) [5]

  • Unit costs for land protection are estimated based on James et al (1999) and James et al (2002) [6]

Exogenous Input Variables

  • Crop intensity index - Units: Dmnl

  • Share of cereal land - Units: Dmnl

Initialization Variables

  • Initial agriculture land[agriculture] - Units: Ha

  • Initial forest land - Units: Ha

  • Initial other land - Units: Ha

  • Initial settlement land - Units: Ha

Modeling Details

Although the model represents land use at national aggregated level, where useful it is possible to make the land sector spatially explicit by the introduction of latitude and longitude subscripts. Such detailed representation of land use can be useful when examining land use issues that are especially relevant at the local scale, but might not emerge from national scale analysis.

Notes and References

[1] FAO (2002), World agriculture: towards 2015/2030. Rome: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations.

UNEP (2012). Global Environment Outlook 5, Environment for the future we want. United Nations Environment Programme.

[2] Wolman, M.G. (1993). Population, Land Use, and Environment: A Long History. In Population and land use in developing countries. Washington, DC: National Research Council.

Malthus, T. (1798). An essay on the principle of population. Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press.

[3] Kissinger, G., Herold, M., De Sy, V. (2012). Drivers of Deforestation and Forest Degradation: A Synthesis Report for REDD+ Policymakers. Vancouver, Canada: Lexeme Consulting.

[4] FAO (1998). Land Cover Classification System (LCCS): Classification Concepts and User Manual. Rome: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations.

[5] Durst, P.B., Sajise, P., & Leslie, R.N. (2011). Forests beneath the grass, Proceedings of the Regional Workshop on Advancing the Application of Assisted Natural Regeneration for Effective Low-Cost Restoration. Rome: Food and Agriculture Organization.

Varmola, M., (2002). Teak in Central America, FAO forest plantations working papers. Forestry Department

[6] James, A.N., Green, M.J.B., & Paine, J.R. (1999). A Global Review of Protected Area Budgets and Staff. WCMC Biodiversity Series No.10. Cambridge, UK: World Conservation Monitoring Centre.

James, A.N., Gaston, K.J., & Balmford, A. (2001). Can We Afford to Conserve Biodiversity?. BioScience, 51(1).